The assessment task is a group assignment on Foreign Exchange Trading starting in Week 5 and due end of Week 8. Students are expected to investigate two pairs of currencies, analyze factors, including macroeconomic, currency-specific, and market factors which affect exchange rates of the currency pairs, then devise trading strategies to make (and maximize) profit, and evaluate risk profile of the currencies and the trading strategies employed.
The following structure and guidelines are provided to assist you in writing your reports.
1.1.Executive summary or synopsis
Your report must include an executive summary or synopsis.
What is the name of your organisation? What is the objective of the report? What are the pairs of currency your team choose to trade for your organization and why? What are your observations and recommendations? How is the report organized?
1.3.Body of Report (Do not use "Body of Report" as a heading)
1.3.1.FX market past behaviour (performance)
This requires you to select at least 2 pairs of currency ( e.g. VND/USD, VND/EURO, VND/AUD, USD/JPY, USD/EUR etc.) and do some research on them i.e. collecting and using events and historical data, etc. of the currency pairs to comment on their past behaviours. Outline and explain the behaviour of the currency pairs in the last 2 years.
1.3.2.Analysis and market view (forecast)
You then look in to current and future (the forecast period) market conditions and form a view: Do you think that the exchange rates of the currency pairs you chose will go up or down in the next 3 to 6 months? Why do you think this? For this, you should first identify and analyse the economic factors that influence the exchange rates (review the slides and lecture notes). Then you should collect and use financial news and news regarding national and international events which are likely to have an impact on the market.
Do not simply quote other people’s opinions. You should present your opinion, and explain in your own words why you hold that opinion in a way that shows that you understand the theory behind the determination of the exchange rates. You can certainly quote evidence that supports your opinion, and this evidence must be correctly referenced (do not submit copies of your collected articles with your report). For your view you should use at least five references.
Very important: you should do some research and discuss your market view prior to the commencement of the preparation session so you can use it when you devise trading strategies.
Given your teams views about current and future market conditions, you should devise trading strategies that you will try to implement over the next six months. These strategies will specify how you will go about achieving your objectives in a way that benefits your organisation – which currency you will buy or sell. What will be your spread and how will you manage your margin. This will also involve devising speculation strategies that will allow you to create a portfolio of currencies that will enable the bank to take advantage of your predicted changes in exchange rates. You should include the bank’s role both as a price maker and as a possible speculator.
You are a treasury team for your bank. You are free to outline and explain any strategies that you believe will benefit your bank along with risks and obstacles the bank might face in implementing them. However, you must be able to explain and justify your strategies and convince your Senior Manager that they will be profitable for the bank.
That you should NOT use derivatives products in trading and hedging, only currency spot is allowed.
The market view and your trading strategies (which are based on that view) are critically important components of the report. You will not get a passing grade on the report without these components.
A conclusion is compulsory. Failure to present a conclusion will result in loss of marks.
Your appendices should include any data tables or figures you may want to use to support your analysis in the report. Label appendices clearly and refer to them in the body of the report.
The reference list is compulsory. Failure to provide a reference list will result in loss of marks. The format of your reference list should follow the Harvard referencing style.